2024 Elections

Donald J. Trump won decisively, sweeping all seven swing states in a 312 to 225 electoral college victory. In 2016, Trump won six of the seven swing states, while in 2020, Biden won six. The election had the second-highest voter turnout in the past half century, and with most of the votes counted, Trump is up by 3 million votes, winning the popular vote for the first time. Trump is the first Republican President to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and the first President since Grover Cleveland to be elected in nonconsecutive terms. In Trump’s victory speech, he declared, “this will truly be the Golden Age of America”.

Trump overcame a significant fundraising deficit. Harris/Walz had over 7 million unique donors compared to Trump/Vance’s 3 million, and her campaign outspent the Trump campaign more than two-to-one. Outside spending also favored the Democrats.

Nearly 40% of voters said the economy was the most important issue, followed by immigration at 20%. Seventy five percent of exit poll respondents said their family’s financial situation today was about the same or worse than four year’s ago. Two-thirds of voters said the country is heading on the wrong track, and President’s Biden’s approval-disapproval was 40-58.

The Congressional races saw Republican wins that were less decisive. Political prognosticator Charlie Cook said the only thing extraordinary about the 2024 Congressional elections was that they were ordinary.

The House will have similar margins to the current 221-214 Congress, now 220-214 with Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) resignation due to his Attorney General nomination. As of today, 218 seats have been called for Republicans and 209 have been called for Democrats, with 8 still to be called. Despite their thin margin, in addition to nominating Rep. Gaetz, Trump has also chosen to nominate Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) as Ambassador to the United Nations and Rep. Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor. All three House seats will necessitate special elections.

In the Senate, Republicans gained four seats (assuming Republicans win the Pennsylvania seat), and the current 51-49 Democratic-led Senate will flip to a likely 53-47 Republican majority next Congress. The Senate map favored Republicans, as 23 of the 34 seats up were Democratic seats. Of those 23 Democratic seats, 8 were in competitive states and 7 were in states won by President Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

Republicans flipped 3 Democrat seats in states that Trump won in 2016, 2020, and 2024 —WV, OH, and MT. The race in PA is headed to a statewide recount, though the Associated Press called the race for Republican Dave McCormick last week. Outside of Pennsylvania, Democrats held on to seats in four purple states that Trump won: AZ (Trump 5pt margin, Sen-Elect Gallego 2pt margin), NV (Trump 4pt margin, Sen. Rosen 2pt margin), MI (Trump 1.5pt margin, Sen-Elect Slotkin narrow margin), and WI (Trump narrow margin, Sen. Baldwin narrow margin). Now, only 3 states have split Senate delegations, the smallest number in over a century.

Congressional Leadership Elections

House and Senate Republicans held their conference leadership elections. In the House, Republicans unanimously nominated Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) for speaker. Johnson will still need to be elected by a majority of the House when the upcoming 119th Congress convenes in January. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) were reelected, Rep. Lisa McClain was selected as the Republican Conference chair, Rep. Erin Houchin (R-IN) will be conference secretary, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) will be policy committee chair, and Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) will chair the NRCC again.

The controversial motion to vacate threshold will be raised from one to nine, a major victory for Johnson. This procedure was utilized to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and a failed  attempt to oust Johnson earlier this year. Conservative members agreed to the change after moderate members agreed to drop a proposal that would punish House Republicans that break with leadership.

The majority’s rules package maintains the ability to request earmarks for the upcoming Congress. A proposal to eliminate earmarks was withdrawn after push back from House Republicans, 70 percent of whom requested earmarks this year. As a result, Members will be able to request earmarks in the upcoming 119th Congress.

In the Senate, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) was elected Senate Majority Leader. Thune defeated Sen. John Cornyn 29-24 in the second round of secret ballot voting. In the first round, Thune received 23 votes to Cornyn’s 15 and Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) 13.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) will serve as assistant majority leader, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) will serve as Republican Conference vice chair, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will serve as Republican Policy Committee Chair, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) will serve as Republican Conference chair, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) will serve as chair of the NRSC.

Sen. Thune said the Senate will keep the filibuster, which means Republicans would need 60 votes in the Senate, and thus bipartisanship, to move funding bills and any bills outside of reconciliation. Trump has pushed the Senate GOP to ditch the filibuster and could do so again if his priorities aren’t deemed eligible for the budget reconciliation process that helps the Senate pass legislation with a simple majority.

As for Democrats, current Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) are expected to lead their party in their respective chambers.

Committees in the 119th Congress

Committee Chair decisions are expected in early December, and assignments should be finalized by late January. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is expected to continue as Chair of the Appropriations Committee Chair, Rep. Robert Aderholdt (R-AL) is expected to continue to Chair the Labor-HHS Subcommittee, and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) is expected to continue as Ranking Member of the Appropriations full Committee and of the Labor-HHS Subcommittee.

Senate Appropriations leads are also expected to remain the same in the upcoming 119th: Chair Susan Collins (R-ME), Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA), Senate Labor-HHS Subcommitee Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Senate Labor-HHS Subcommitee Ranking Member Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).

Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) announced he will Chair the Senate HELP Committee. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to be Ranking Member. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) is expected to be Ranking Member of the House Education and the Workforce Committee. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT) and Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI) are both vying to be Chair of that Committee.

Lame Duck Agenda

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s priorities for the rest of the year’s lame duck session including funding the government, disaster aid, passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)—NDAA floor action expected next month, confirming judicial appointments, and possibly farm bill reauthorization.

The current FY 25 Continuing Resolution extended funding through December 20 of this year. Democrats would like to pass FY 25 funding bills in the lame duck, as would the House and Senate lead Republican appropriators who would prefer to clear the decks, freeing time on the congressional calendar for other policy priorities next Congress. However, the House and Senate bills differ significantly and a topline funding agreement would be needed very soon in order to complete FY 25 funding by the end of the year. Speaker Johnson has expressed interest in extending CR into March, but has indicated he will defer to President Trump on whether to complete the FY 25 funding process this year or pursue a March extension. Speaker Johnson was heading to Mar-a-Lago this weekend and planned to discuss the matter with Trump.

Trump’s First 100-Day Agenda

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise issued a Dear Colleague letter which outline’s the House’s first 100-day agenda for the upcoming Trump Administration. Scalise lists tax cuts, energy policy, and border security/immigration, noting that they will use budget reconciliation to accomplish their goals.

Sen. John Barrasso, who will serve as assistant majority leader in the upcoming Congress, said they hope to have the budget resolution ready for the start of the upcoming Congress, which convenes on January 3. The budget resolution will include reconciliation instructions that make significant cuts to mandatory programs and extend the Trump era tax cuts.

White House Classroom to Career Summit

On Wednesday, the Biden-Harris Administration hosted a “Classroom to Career Summit”. The Summit highlighted the Administration’s work to expand CTE and community college training, grow Registered Apprenticeships and other workforce programs, spread skills-based hiring, and lead the way in White House Workforce Hubs. A fact sheet on the Summit may be accessed here.